Tue, Mar 16, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 119 | 011 | 237 |
| DET | 215 | 18 | 15 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jesper Fast, Jake Bean · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:35DETAdam ErnePPAssists: Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 12:11DETAdam ErnePPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 1:50CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 12:28DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:34DETFilip HronekENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:59DETAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:48CARHaydn Fleury: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:20CARCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:45CARDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:52DETChristian Djoos: Interference2 min
- P2 8:50CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:51CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 18:48DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:36CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Aho – Necas11:53
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie5:33
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Lorentz4:54
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Foegele3:39
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Bean9:39
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:12
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin14:29
xG 0.56–0.77 (42%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Erne8:43
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri8:09
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Zadina6:41
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher10:37
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Djoos2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Merrill8:38
xG 0.13–0.18 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).