Wed, Mar 17, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New York Rangers 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 08 | 010 | 026 |
| NYR | 26 | 717 | 06 | 929 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05NYRBrendan LemieuxGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:47NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:38NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 3:38NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 7:30NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P2 8:27NYRMika ZibanejadSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–6
- P2 14:29NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–7
- P2 18:37NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–8
- P2 19:39NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Libor Hajek, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–9
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:18PHIPhilippe Myers: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:35PHIPhilippe Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:48NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:19NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:23PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:41PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Farabee5:38
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Andreoff – Raffl – Bunnaman5:39
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Patrick4:31
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee6:37
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov7:53
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim4:12
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Braun – Myers2:18
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Rooney – Howden9:52
xG 0.36–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière11:15
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:37
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin9:53
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren10:47
xG 1.08–0.32 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- Trouba – Miller14:41
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
- Lindgren – Miller2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).