Wed, Mar 17, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 7, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 29 | 113 | 48 | 730 |
| CGY | 09 | 115 | 29 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:22EDMJesse PuljujarviPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 8:39EDMDominik KahunAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 9:04CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 1:50EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 3:44EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 5:55EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–1
- P3 8:38EDMZack KassianAssists: Gaetan Haas, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.07 xG7–1
- P3 14:47CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.13 xG7–2
- P3 16:04CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.09 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:34CGYBrett Ritchie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:20EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:45CGYSam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:45EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:14CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:37CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:57EDMDevin Shore: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:39
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Ennis – Kassian – Haas9:44
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:51
xG 0.53–0.78 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Archibald – Shore11:09
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Bear13:28
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:34
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Lagesson16:58
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Tkachuk – Dube10:22
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan12:41
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Leivo – Bennett – Ryan7:31
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane11:45
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 1–4
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:43
xG 1.02–0.72 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Giordano – Andersson16:21
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 23–6goals 0–2
- Kylington – Välimäki16:51
xG 0.40–0.69 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).