Wed, Mar 17, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 316 | 16 | 433 |
| VGK | 110 | 011 | 416 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:21SJSMatt NietoAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:57SJSMario FerraroAssists: John Leonard, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 15:07SJSKevin LabancAssists: Evander Kane, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 6:43VGKCody GlassPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–2
- P3 10:03VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 12:27VGKRyan ReavesAssists: Tomas Nosek, Zach Whitecloud · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 14:46VGKAlec MartinezPPGWGAssists: Tomas Nosek, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 15:54SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:41SJSFredrik Handemark: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:34VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
- P1 13:23SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:45SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:37VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38SJSJohn Leonard: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:11VGKMark Stone: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:11SJSTomas Hertl: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:58VGKJonathan Marchessault: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 10:58SJSLogan Couture: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:53SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:16VGKKeegan Kolesar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGabriel – Donato – Handemark5:41
xG 0.70–0.11 (86%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Couture – Kane – Labanc11:24
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Marleau – Gambrell – Leonard6:40
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nieto – Hertl – Meier8:12
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro14:40
xG 1.61–0.16 (91%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Vlasic – Simek11:34
xG 0.63–0.62 (51%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Knyzhov15:53
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 5–15goals 0–3
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek5:25
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jurco – Nosek – Roy3:12
xG 0.02–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jurco – Kolesar – Roy3:49
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stone – Glass9:47
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Coghlan4:58
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore5:35
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Coghlan7:17
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).