Thu, Mar 18, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 312 | 110 | 431 |
| NYI | 08 | 05 | 312 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:26PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 10:04PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Nate Prosser, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 14:01PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Kevin Hayes, Scott Laughton · Slap, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 7:53NYIMichael Dal ColleAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 13:53NYISebastian AhoAssists: Nick Leddy, Michael Dal Colle · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 14:27NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Nick Leddy, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 17:38PHIOskar LindblomGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Philippe Myers · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:36NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:33PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:38NYIKieffer Bellows: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:28PHINolan Patrick: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Lindblom – Konecny8:55
xG 1.10–0.29 (79%)attempts 19–3goals 3–2
- Voracek – Hayes – Laughton10:07
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee13:51
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Aube-Kubel – Twarynski – Patrick7:18
xG 0.03–0.21 (14%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov17:25
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Prosser – Gustafsson10:38
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers16:40
xG 0.39–0.78 (33%)attempts 15–19goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Dal Colle4:24
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Wahlstrom7:02
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier7:23
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pageau – Bellows – Wahlstrom3:51
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Aho2:11
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Leddy – Mayfield11:13
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock16:42
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).