Thu, Mar 18, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 17 | 18 | 227 |
| FLA | 113 | 015 | 013 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Patric Hornqvist, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:25NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 1:17NSHCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:13NSHJeremy Davies: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:08FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:01FLAJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:38NSHYakov Trenin: Holding2 min
- P3 12:13NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P3 19:41FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Granlund – Arvidsson12:07
xG 1.43–0.70 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier9:05
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen13:07
xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi9:04
xG 0.18–1.14 (13%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Harpur – Fabbro15:04
xG 0.36–0.71 (33%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Benning – Davies15:04
xG 0.63–1.01 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Carrier15:24
xG 0.58–1.26 (31%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Lammikko – Acciari7:46
xG 0.97–0.28 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen8:07
xG 0.67–0.07 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment9:56
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Acciari – Tippett2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad18:48
xG 1.20–0.37 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling12:49
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad2:21
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).