Fri, Mar 19, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 210 | 06 | 11 | 328 |
| MTL | 18 | 013 | 110 | 00 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15MTLCorey PerryPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
- P2 2:25VANAdam GaudetteAssists: Antoine Roussel, Zack MacEwen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:37VANNils HoglanderAssists: Nate Schmidt, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:03MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:01VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:55VANAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:32MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:50VANQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:54MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:39VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57VANTyler Motte: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Vesey – Virtanen10:18
xG 0.82–0.16 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Roussel – Gaudette – MacEwen5:59
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sutter – Motte – Hawryluk8:04
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Hoglander11:49
xG 0.21–0.85 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Benn12:43
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Myers – Schmidt2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Edler – Schmidt15:11
xG 0.90–1.00 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi11:16
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Armia – Suzuki6:41
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Perry – Byron – Evans3:31
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault12:18
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak15:01
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Romanov2:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ouellet – Romanov13:21
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).