Tue, Apr 20, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 118 | 014 | 241 |
| BUF | 09 | 06 | 017 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:03BOSConnor CliftonAssists: Sean Kuraly, Curtis Lazar · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:17BOSJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:04BOSBrad Marchand: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:10BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:05BUFDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P3 8:03BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:30BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41BOSCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:59BOSNick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26BOSJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:06BUFJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reinhart won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:20
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lazar9:46
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Krejci – Smith – Hall11:37
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk8:03
xG 0.06–0.42 (13%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Clifton14:28
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy14:01
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Lauzon – McAvoy2:35
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen7:46
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Rieder – Caggiula6:29
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson9:25
xG 0.16–0.74 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:31
xG 0.35–1.25 (22%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Dahlin14:28
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Miller – Bryson13:23
xG 0.34–1.02 (25%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson11:55
xG 0.11–1.05 (10%)attempts 2–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).