Sat, Mar 20, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 011 | 03 | 124 |
| NYI | 413 | 07 | 28 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 8:01NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 10:03NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P1 15:25NYICasey CizikasAssists: Thomas Hickey, Oliver Wahlstrom · Snap, 0.22 xG0–4
- P1 17:52PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 9:45NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 15:46NYIJosh BaileyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:43PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:35NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:35PHIOskar Lindblom: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:28NYIAndy Greene: Interference2 min
- P2 13:06NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:07PHIPhilippe Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:54NYIJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Lindblom – Konecny6:53
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Farabee9:18
xG 0.26–0.43 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Raffl8:31
xG 0.09–0.64 (12%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Aube-Kubel – Twarynski – Patrick7:29
xG 0.05–0.63 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Provorov2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov14:06
xG 0.17–0.68 (20%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Prosser – Gustafsson11:38
xG 0.33–0.97 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Eberle – Barzal8:38
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Dal Colle10:22
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:50
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Pageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom8:16
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield4:57
xG 0.76–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield7:14
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:31
xG 0.80–0.52 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).