Sat, Mar 20, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 02 | 210 | 24 | 02 | 1 | 418 |
| MTL | 110 | 212 | 115 | 03 | 2 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:22VANJake VirtanenAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 8:08VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 13:44MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:21MTLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 0:22VANBo HorvatAssists: Quinn Hughes, Nils Hoglander · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 0:55VANTyler MotteAssists: Jayce Hawryluk, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 5:29MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Corey Perry scored
- 2. VAN Brock Boeser scored
- 3. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 4. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
- 5. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 6. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
- 7. MTL Jesperi Kotkaniemi stopped
- 8. VAN Adam Gaudette stopped
- 9. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 10. VAN Jimmy Vesey stopped
- 11. MTL Tomas Tatar scored
- 12. VAN Nils Hoglander stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:26VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:41MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Miller – Vesey – Virtanen10:46
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Hoglander14:49
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Roussel – Gaudette – MacEwen5:27
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sutter – Motte – Hawryluk10:35
xG 0.12–0.85 (12%)attempts 5–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Edler – Schmidt21:06
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 9–24goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Hughes18:16
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Myers – Benn15:26
xG 0.32–1.44 (18%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault13:01
xG 0.93–0.15 (86%)attempts 21–6goals 3–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi10:27
xG 0.75–0.18 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Perry – Byron – Evans7:16
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki14:08
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak20:13
xG 0.83–0.09 (90%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Mete – Romanov13:13
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Weber – Edmundson17:37
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).