Sat, Mar 20, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 212 | 011 | 08 | 231 |
| EDM | 111 | 015 | 311 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:27WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 17:04EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 3:19EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:36EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:40EDMDevin ShoreENAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:09WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:56EDMGaetan Haas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:17WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:44EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
- P3 0:53EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:34WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois11:00
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault6:13
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton10:04
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele13:32
xG 0.71–1.00 (41%)attempts 7–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:53
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
- Morrissey – Pionk2:43
xG 0.05–0.11 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Poolman – Stanley7:46
xG 0.16–0.39 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi5:50
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:52
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Archibald – Nugent-Hopkins – Kahun2:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Shore – Khaira6:41
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse16:57
xG 1.41–0.66 (68%)attempts 28–12goals 3–0
- Russell – Bear12:31
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:13
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).