Sun, Mar 21, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 010 | 124 | 142 |
| LAK | 010 | 214 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:58LAKSean WalkerAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 6:49LAKDustin BrownPPGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Anze Kopitar · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 16:33VGKTomas NosekAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 17:28LAKJeff CarterAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Sean Walker · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:48VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 3:02LAKAustin Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:58VGKWilliam Carrier: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:09LAKSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22LAKKurtis MacDermid: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:07LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:36LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Nosek – Kolesar2:29
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Tuch10:30
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Carrier – Roy – Glass2:45
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Kolesar3:55
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoghlan – Hague2:05
xG 0.76–0.06 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Martinez – Theodore12:24
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- McNabb – Coghlan12:02
xG 0.39–0.86 (31%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Athanasiou – Kempe4:38
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Anderson-Dolan9:20
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Wagner – Vilardi – Lizotte4:43
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:47
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Roy2:01
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Walker4:33
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Walker7:57
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).