Tue, Mar 23, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 211 | 07 | 432 |
| PHI | 18 | 09 | 216 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Ty Smith, Andreas Johnsson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:43PHIJoel FarabeePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 19:54NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Janne Kuokkanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:32NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Travis Zajac, Janne Kuokkanen · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 19:36NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Ty Smith, Yegor Sharangovich · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 11:37PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 18:58PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:30PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min
- P1 11:53NJDTy Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:51NJDTy Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:09PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:37PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:37NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Wood – McLeod7:31
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Zajac – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich11:02
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hughes7:55
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zacha – Merkley – Maltsev10:36
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Smith13:04
xG 0.90–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Subban – Kulikov14:41
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Murray12:03
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRaffl – Aube-Kubel – Patrick4:53
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick4:18
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Hayes – Farabee3:51
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Konecny5:47
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim13:36
xG 0.89–0.75 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov13:30
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Myers12:00
xG 0.04–1.03 (4%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).