Wed, Mar 24, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 111 | 08 | 129 |
| OTT | 011 | 07 | 313 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:37CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Sean Monahan, Dillon Dube · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 4:48OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 12:01OTTChris TierneyGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 18:44OTTNikita ZaitsevENAssists: Artem Zub, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:44OTTColin White: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:01CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:21CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:56OTTNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
- P3 17:20CGYNikita Nesterov: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:30OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Leivo – Ryan6:47
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk9:44
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Dube12:00
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Lucic – Lindholm – Bennett11:43
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson12:54
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:25
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Nesterov – Välimäki11:06
xG 0.32–0.25 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Batherson – Stützle7:54
xG 0.79–0.06 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Bishop – Formenton3:56
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – White2:06
xG 0.01–0.07 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Norris – Tkachuk9:45
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zub11:07
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Reilly – Chabot2:29
xG 0.46–0.08 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub3:36
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).