Wed, Mar 24, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 316 | 28 | 536 |
| VAN | 011 | 020 | 18 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:53WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 10:50WPGAndrew CoppPPGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.39 xG2–0
- P2 18:13WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.27 xG3–0
- P3 15:50WPGAndrew CoppENUnassisted · Snap, 0.54 xG4–0
- P3 17:34WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Backhand, 0.31 xG5–0
- P3 18:35VANNils HoglanderAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Backhand, 0.21 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:42VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:08WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:19VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:19WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:35VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 8:59VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:18WPGLogan Stanley: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois10:47
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault8:47
xG 0.10–0.30 (24%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele11:43
xG 0.82–1.20 (41%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton9:34
xG 0.37–1.86 (17%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley12:03
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Forbort – Pionk14:09
xG 0.78–1.31 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey15:26
xG 0.55–2.01 (22%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Boeser – Hoglander9:53
xG 1.36–0.37 (79%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Vesey – Virtanen10:10
xG 1.30–0.45 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Roussel – Graovac – MacEwen6:49
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Motte – Hawryluk – Gaudette5:42
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes14:32
xG 1.76–0.50 (78%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Edler – Schmidt12:57
xG 1.49–0.36 (81%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Myers – Benn12:32
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).