Thu, Mar 25, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 8, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 37 | 37 | 28 | 822 |
| PHI | 08 | 218 | 118 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:53NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 13:36NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 0:54NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 2:06NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.15 xG5–0
- P2 2:42NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.02 xG6–0
- P2 3:46PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Kevin Hayes, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.15 xG6–1
- P2 13:34PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.14 xG6–2
- P3 0:33NYRPavel BuchnevichSHAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.07 xG7–2
- P3 1:28PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.08 xG7–3
- P3 18:02NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.14 xG8–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 9:29NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:29PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:50PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:12PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:15PHISamuel Morin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05NYRBrendan Lemieux: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41NYRJacob Trouba: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:35PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:35NYRRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:35PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:34PHISamuel Morin: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:34NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:34PHISamuel Morin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:34PHIScott Laughton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:34PHIMichael Raffl: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:34NYRKevin Rooney: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Lemieux – Rooney6:27
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko10:41
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:12
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière9:17
xG 0.29–0.78 (27%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren11:28
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller15:33
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Smith – Hajek12:54
xG 0.11–0.75 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Hayes – Farabee8:19
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Laughton – Raffl – Aube-Kubel5:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick5:33
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Konecny8:42
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers14:05
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Braun – Provorov12:00
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).