Thu, Mar 25, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 29 | 18 | 12 | 433 |
| CBJ | 08 | 114 | 214 | 00 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:03CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:49CARCedric PaquetteAssists: Brady Skjei, Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:16CARMartin NecasAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Bean · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 3:20CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 15:42CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:44CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 1:26CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:03CBJDean Kukan: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:39CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P1 15:59CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:36CARWarren Foegele: Elbowing2 min
- P3 1:55CARJake Bean: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against MacInnis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPaquette – Lorentz – Geekie6:55
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Foegele8:33
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – Aho – Necas2:29
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Svechnikov9:44
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Bean12:25
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:51
xG 0.71–1.33 (35%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:14
xG 0.52–1.34 (28%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Stenlund – Laine11:01
xG 1.32–0.47 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Domi – Roslovic10:20
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Foligno – Nash – Jenner11:01
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Matteau – MacInnis – Robinson7:15
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov16:08
xG 1.45–0.48 (75%)attempts 22–16goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Kukan12:01
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:14
xG 0.60–0.93 (39%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).