Wed, May 12, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 29 | 17 | 05 | 11 | 422 |
| MTL | 29 | 08 | 111 | 01 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:35EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: James Neal, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 9:58MTLNick SuzukiSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 10:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 10:47EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 8:22MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 0:27EDMDominik KahunGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:45MTLBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37MTLNick Suzuki: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:25MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:23EDMJosh Archibald: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Khaira
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- McDavid – Puljujarvi – Kahun9:52
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Turris – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl13:55
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – McLeod10:33
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
- Archibald – Shore – Khaira11:10
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Jones13:16
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Barrie – Nurse19:51
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Larsson17:16
xG 0.15–0.48 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Suzuki – Caufield13:32
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Perry – Tatar – Kotkaniemi12:30
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans11:34
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Frolik – Belzile – Ylonen9:28
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Gustafsson15:24
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Kulak19:54
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Ouellet – Romanov13:19
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).