Mon, May 10, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 29 | 05 | 00 | 218 |
| BOS | 118 | 19 | 09 | 12 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:21BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: David Krejci, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:38NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 6:15BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 8:31NYIMathew BarzalSHAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:53BOSTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:38NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min
- P1 17:55NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:14NYILeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:14NYILeo Komarov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:51BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:56BOSTaylor Hall: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:29BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:29NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:28
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier9:09
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston6:20
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal10:35
xG 0.31–1.18 (21%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Pelech2:52
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dobson2:21
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Dobson10:05
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Smith – Hall8:11
xG 0.51–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Lazar – Kase – DeBrusk4:37
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:34
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Ritchie9:56
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy15:46
xG 1.36–0.35 (79%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Reilly – Carlo15:44
xG 1.04–0.22 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Reilly – McAvoy2:12
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).