Thu, Mar 25, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 015 | 05 | 016 | 036 |
| PIT | 112 | 19 | 210 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:21PITRadim ZohornaGWGAssists: Anthony Angello, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:27PITJared McCannPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 8:56PITJared McCannPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 18:54PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.63 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:06PITZachary Aston-Reese: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:14BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:26PITAnthony Angello: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:32BUFJacob Bryson: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:03PITSidney Crosby: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:49BUFRiley Sheahan: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 10:47BUFSteven Fogarty: Holding2 min
- P3 13:59PITMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Hall – Reinhart13:17
xG 1.73–0.23 (88%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Olofsson – Cozens8:07
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lazar – Mittelstadt7:26
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Eakin – Fogarty – Smith6:47
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin11:11
xG 1.37–0.29 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Bryson11:44
xG 0.65–0.36 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Montour10:33
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese8:30
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Angello – Zohorna6:00
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Lafferty11:15
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:36
xG 0.62–1.38 (31%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ceci9:32
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Letang – Marino2:18
xG 0.10–0.16 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino15:09
xG 0.65–0.97 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).