Sun, Mar 28, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 324 |
| STL | 214 | 015 | 011 | 00 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:59STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Perron · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 8:24ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Max Jones · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 2:13ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Max Jones · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:42ANAJosh MansonGWGAssists: Anthony Stolarz, Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:16STLNiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P1 15:53ANAJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:37ANADerek Grant: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Comtois – Lundeström2:48
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Grant – Jones5:51
xG 0.29–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Jones4:58
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Jones2:35
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Larsson3:34
xG 0.31–0.07 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Hutton9:32
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Welinski – Hutton2:29
xG 0.02–0.07 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – de la Rose – Blais6:53
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sanford – Kyrou9:20
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Perron – Schenn – Sanford2:08
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:02
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Mikkola9:27
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug21:05
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Scandella – Mikkola2:12
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).