Sun, Mar 28, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 1, Boston Bruins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 012 | 05 | 129 |
| BOS | 09 | 014 | 017 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:37NJDKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Ty Smith, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:27NJDAndreas Johnsson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 11:55BOSConnor Clifton: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:33BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:49NJDJanne Kuokkanen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:36BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:18BOSZach Senyshyn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich9:58
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hughes7:13
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Wood – Zacha – Merkley8:09
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Johnsson – McLeod – Boqvist6:54
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov12:29
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Severson – Smith13:47
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Murray10:11
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBlidh – Studnicka – Kuhlman5:10
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Bjork3:38
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Bjork – Senyshyn3:38
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Coyle – Senyshyn – Frederic3:10
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy11:57
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Clifton – Lauzon10:27
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Clifton – Zboril2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).