Sun, Mar 28, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 18 | 06 | 117 |
| DET | 17 | 014 | 38 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40DETEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Darren Helm, Christian Djoos · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 18:25CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:51DETMichael RasmussenGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 18:31DETFilip HronekENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–3
- P3 18:52DETVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Anthony Mantha, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:12DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:12CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:12DETAnthony Mantha: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:51CBJMax Domi: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic6:09
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine5:41
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Stenlund5:27
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- MacInnis – Stenlund – Robinson2:31
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Gavrikov16:25
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Carlsson13:59
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Jones – Werenski20:50
xG 0.29–1.09 (21%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Erne9:13
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Larkin – Fabbri – Zadina12:09
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Namestnikov – Mantha4:11
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Mantha – Svechnikov2:31
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek16:54
xG 1.22–0.22 (85%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Merrill16:57
xG 0.96–0.18 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Merrill3:44
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).