Sat, Apr 17, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 4, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 15 | 25 | 415 |
| MTL | 03 | 011 | 09 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03OTTArtem ZubGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:12OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 15:26OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 15:45OTTNikita ZaitsevENAssists: Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:32MTLTyler Toffoli: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P1 19:56MTLBrett Kulak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:24OTTAlex Formenton: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:21OTTRyan Dzingel: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 6:18MTLTyler Toffoli: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:03MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:58OTTJoshua Brown: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:53
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Tierney – Paul – Formenton2:30
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – White – Stützle8:01
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Tierney – Paul6:03
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brannstrom – Zub11:59
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Brown – Mete9:42
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev18:15
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi10:34
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Armia – Suzuki9:35
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Toffoli – Suzuki2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Tatar – Danault3:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson13:51
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Kulak – Romanov12:26
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot13:19
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).