Sun, Mar 28, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 4, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 314 | 04 | 15 | 423 |
| DAL | 17 | 014 | 013 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:03FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 6:26FLAAnthony DuclairGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P1 13:37FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:55FLAOwen TippettENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:55DALJohn Klingberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:19FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:26DALAndrew Cogliano: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 13:21DALBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:36DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:36FLAMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:41DALDenis Gurianov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:58FLANoel Acciari: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:09DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 7:22FLARiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:22DALDenis Gurianov: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:09FLAMarkus Nutivaara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Acciari9:36
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Tippett7:34
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Marchment – Luostarinen2:31
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:35
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Stillman5:18
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad4:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Forsling3:35
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:01
xG 1.03–0.30 (77%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov7:48
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:40
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Caamano – Gardner – L'Esperance5:16
xG 0.00–0.36 (1%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Hanley4:00
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen4:07
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:42
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).