Mon, Mar 29, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 07 | 05 | 125 |
| VGK | 09 | 39 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00LAKMatt RoyAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:04VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 16:28VGKTomas NosekGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud, William Carrier · Snap, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 17:54VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 12:35VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:06VGKNicolas Hague: Holding2 min
- P2 3:08LAKCarl Grundstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30VGKKeegan Kolesar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:33LAKTrevor Moore: Interference2 min
- P2 18:19LAKCarl Grundstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:57VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:41
xG 1.00–0.29 (77%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Wagner – Grundstrom – Lizotte9:05
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Moore – Vilardi9:54
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Kempe – Anderson-Dolan10:08
xG 0.40–1.29 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Bjornfot12:09
xG 0.80–0.22 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:59
xG 0.86–0.98 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Walker – Strand16:16
xG 0.77–1.50 (34%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Kolesar – Glass9:25
xG 1.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:41
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:05
xG 0.03–0.44 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:54
xG 0.82–1.30 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud15:18
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- McNabb – Coghlan15:09
xG 0.99–0.62 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Martinez – Theodore11:13
xG 0.78–1.35 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).