Mon, Mar 29, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 09 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 325 |
| SJS | 118 | 19 | 111 | 01 | 3 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:41MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:04SJSRadim SimekAssists: Ryan Donato, John Leonard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:00MINNick BoninoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:45SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 4:11SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Ryan Donato, Dylan Gambrell · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 9:48MINKevin FialaAssists: Mathew Dumba, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 2. SJS Ryan Donato stopped
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
- 4. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 5. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 6. SJS Kevin Labanc scored
- 7. MIN Marcus Johansson stopped
- 8. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 9. MIN Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 10. SJS Evander Kane stopped
- 11. MIN Victor Rask stopped
- 12. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 13. MIN Joel Eriksson Ek stopped
- 14. SJS John Leonard stopped
- 15. MIN Ryan Hartman stopped
- 16. SJS Erik Karlsson scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:57SJSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57MINLuke Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:08MINJared Spurgeon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gambrell won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:29
xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala13:08
xG 0.65–0.78 (45%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov14:20
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Johnson – Sturm7:37
xG 0.09–0.69 (12%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:30
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Cole – Soucy13:13
xG 0.95–1.05 (48%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba20:25
xG 0.86–1.30 (40%)attempts 21–28goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Kane – Labanc12:35
xG 1.01–0.53 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Hertl – Meier – Balcers15:16
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
- Marleau – Sorensen – Viel6:37
xG 0.65–0.78 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Donato – Gambrell – Leonard12:36
xG 0.40–0.67 (38%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek13:53
xG 1.26–0.30 (81%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Burns – Ferraro18:54
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 26–15goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Knyzhov17:52
xG 0.60–1.84 (25%)attempts 19–26goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).