Tue, Mar 30, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 010 | 010 | 232 |
| NYR | 110 | 06 | 411 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Slap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:22WSHNic DowdAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 15:36NYRFilip ChytilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 4:10NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 6:32NYRAdam FoxGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Lindgren · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:41NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 19:25NYRPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:42NYRKevin Rooney: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:29WSHDaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:18WSHZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:44NYRPhillip Di Giuseppe: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:50NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:25WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:25WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Vrana – Sprong8:46
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:46
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Backstrom – Wilson – Sheary12:56
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov11:20
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov17:53
xG 0.88–0.55 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Chara – Jensen13:26
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Carlson – Dillon17:32
xG 0.68–1.10 (38%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Panarin – Kakko9:46
xG 0.67–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 3–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière7:04
xG 0.18–0.15 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:54
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Di Giuseppe – Rooney9:31
xG 0.49–0.90 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:42
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller19:09
xG 1.25–1.26 (50%)attempts 17–21goals 2–0
- Smith – Hajek13:13
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).