Tue, Mar 30, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 118 | 08 | 136 |
| FLA | 311 | 19 | 013 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:27FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 12:25FLABrett ConnollyAssists: Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 7:29DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 12:11FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Owen Tippett · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:14DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:26DETJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:57FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:45FLAMarkus Nutivaara: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:58FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:55DETThomas Greiss: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:40DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:28FLAEetu Luostarinen: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Erne6:35
xG 1.06–0.11 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Mantha – Smith5:18
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Svechnikov – Rasmussen4:51
xG 0.11–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – Svechnikov – Rasmussen3:00
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Djoos11:13
xG 1.46–0.53 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Merrill10:03
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- DeKeyser – Hronek11:18
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Acciari – Marchment3:32
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – Huberdeau – Wennberg11:21
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Tippett6:27
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Acciari7:13
xG 0.32–0.51 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman8:11
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Gudas – Stillman2:12
xG 0.46–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Forsling14:26
xG 0.84–0.79 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).