Sun, May 16, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 6, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 416 | 08 | 11 | 636 |
| VAN | 06 | 18 | 418 | 03 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30CGYJosh LeivoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:48CGYMilan LucicAssists: Josh Leivo, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:17CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 8:05CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Dillon Dube, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P2 13:21VANTravis HamonicAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 14:03CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Connor Mackey, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 2:30VANTyler GraovacPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 7:47VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 11:28VANJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Slap, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 17:58VANBrock BoeserAssists: Alexander Edler, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–5
- OT 3:24CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:15VANNils Hoglander: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:50CGYAdam Ruzicka: Interference2 min
- P2 6:20CGYConnor Mackey: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:20CGYConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:20VANJonah Gadjovich: Instigator2 min
- P2 6:20VANJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:20VANJonah Gadjovich: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 14:20VANBrock Boeser: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:21VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:59CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:29CGYConnor Mackey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41VANBo Horvat: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:08CGYDillon Dube: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Dube8:50
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Lucic – Leivo – Ryan7:51
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:52
xG 0.34–0.37 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Ritchie – Simon – Ruzicka5:32
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Välimäki11:06
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Giordano – Tanev12:21
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Mackey11:13
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Miller – Vesey – Boeser2:24
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Highmore3:00
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Highmore – Boeser4:55
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander5:44
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Juolevi3:42
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hughes13:52
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Edler – Chatfield2:51
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).