Wed, Mar 31, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 28 | 213 | 09 | 430 |
| VGK | 08 | 117 | 117 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58LAKAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Sean Walker · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:23LAKLias AnderssonAssists: Tobias Bjornfot · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 9:41VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:21LAKJaret Anderson-DolanGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
- P2 16:12LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Mikey Anderson, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 3:36VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Alex Tuch, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:14VGKAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P1 6:14LAKBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:00VGKNicolas Hague: Holding2 min
- P1 17:53VGKMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:53LAKAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:07LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:14VGKChandler Stephenson: Elbowing5 min
- P2 18:14VGKChandler Stephenson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:53LAKBlake Lizotte: Holding2 min
- P3 13:19VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Kempe – Anderson-Dolan5:31
xG 0.89–0.14 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Wagner – Andersson – Lizotte7:10
xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Carter – Moore – Vilardi6:25
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:21
xG 0.00–0.80 (0%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAnderson – Strand2:33
xG 1.32–0.14 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:36
xG 1.42–1.09 (56%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Roy – Walker3:20
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson7:04
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Nosek2:53
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault7:37
xG 0.68–0.87 (44%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Carrier – Nosek – Kolesar6:29
xG 0.17–0.63 (21%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud9:50
xG 0.57–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Martinez – Theodore10:35
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – McNabb9:46
xG 0.55–1.09 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).