Thu, Apr 1, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Boston Bruins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 210 | 26 | 423 |
| BOS | 02 | 013 | 116 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:01PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Brandon Tanev, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 13:12PITMike MathesonGWGAssists: Anthony Angello, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 11:14BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Jakub Zboril · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 13:07PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:51PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:59PITBrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:31BOSJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P3 1:03BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:03PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P3 18:44PITMark Jankowski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:05
xG 1.12–0.14 (89%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:24
xG 0.80–0.23 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Lafferty – Angello5:17
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Zucker – McCann – Rodrigues10:16
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin20:52
xG 0.99–0.29 (77%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino12:34
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ceci14:41
xG 1.01–0.67 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith3:00
xG 0.21–0.07 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Pastrnak6:37
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Senyshyn4:06
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Smith – Ritchie4:20
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Lauzon4:03
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Zboril – Carlo2:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Zboril – McAvoy6:12
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).