Thu, Apr 1, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 115 | 121 | 11 | 347 |
| BUF | 112 | 02 | 18 | 01 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Jeff Skinner, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 6:40NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 6:17NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Julien Gauthier, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 19:56BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 4:32NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:34BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:56NYRPhillip Di Giuseppe: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:55BUFColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P3 13:55BUFSteven Fogarty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Di Giuseppe – Rooney7:14
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko11:59
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:14
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière6:16
xG 0.61–1.05 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller16:37
xG 1.69–0.52 (77%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Hajek11:53
xG 0.87–0.77 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren15:41
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Reinhart – Olofsson9:52
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Skinner – Asplund7:59
xG 0.08–0.34 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Hall – Thompson – Mittelstadt9:51
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Fogarty11:07
xG 0.28–0.95 (23%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Bryson14:14
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin12:55
xG 0.29–1.05 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Miller – Montour15:34
xG 0.31–1.35 (19%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).