Thu, Apr 1, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 4, New York Islanders 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 27 | 08 | 422 |
| NYI | 413 | 29 | 211 | 833 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Tom Wilson, Conor Sheary · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:02NYIJordan EberleAssists: Leo Komarov, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:09NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 17:32NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P1 17:54WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P1 18:53NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P2 3:03NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
- P2 6:47WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–5
- P2 8:08NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.11 xG3–6
- P2 19:01WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Jakub Vrana, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–6
- P3 3:13NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–7
- P3 18:54NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey, Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–8
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:59NYIJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 8:26WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:59WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:54WSHGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:54NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00WSHZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Backstrom – Wilson – Sheary14:36
xG 0.36–0.76 (32%)attempts 15–6goals 1–3
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway6:52
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Eller – Vrana – Sprong10:04
xG 0.39–0.93 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov14:13
xG 0.37–1.03 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Dillon14:59
xG 0.60–0.91 (40%)attempts 19–9goals 3–4
- Chara – Jensen14:15
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Schultz – Orlov19:29
xG 0.44–1.71 (20%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Eberle – Barzal10:18
xG 1.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–4goals 4–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:13
xG 1.21–0.23 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:24
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Pageau – Johnston – Wahlstrom8:20
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield17:39
xG 1.63–0.69 (70%)attempts 20–12goals 3–2
- Greene – Dobson8:32
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Greene – Pulock4:51
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).