Thu, Apr 1, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 08 | 18 | 00 | 227 |
| FLA | 19 | 019 | 17 | 11 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21DETAdam ErneAssists: Troy Stecher, Patrik Nemeth · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:55FLANoel AcciariAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 6:07DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 10:39FLAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:25FLAAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:50DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:50FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:51DETVladislav Namestnikov: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:16FLAJuho Lammikko: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:36FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:36DETRobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:06DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:49DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:49FLARiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:27FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:26DETJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:33DETJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Fabbri – Zadina13:33
xG 0.80–0.44 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Mantha – Smith – Rasmussen3:04
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Namestnikov – Smith2:33
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – Svechnikov – Rasmussen3:40
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Merrill15:09
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek15:25
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Stecher12:28
xG 0.05–0.61 (7%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Acciari – Marchment15:20
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Connolly – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:23
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Wennberg – Luostarinen2:17
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Tippett7:21
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling17:18
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stralman3:01
xG 0.21–0.06 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Gudas – Nutivaara4:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).