Thu, Apr 1, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 113 | 28 | 431 |
| NSH | 111 | 04 | 07 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39DALEsa LindellAssists: Blake Comeau, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:21NSHColton SissonsAssists: Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:49DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:41DALJamie BennPPAssists: Denis Gurianov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 17:51DALMiro HeiskanenENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:19DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:11DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:50NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:46NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:26DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P3 19:53NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:53DALTy Dellandrea: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00NSHMathieu Olivier: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Gardner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Faksa – Gurianov12:13
xG 0.70–0.19 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson8:39
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:33
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kero – Gardner – Dellandrea6:44
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen16:02
xG 0.94–0.30 (76%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell11:27
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Sekera – Lindell5:28
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier9:23
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi8:47
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Arvidsson – Tolvanen10:25
xG 0.02–0.33 (7%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin12:51
xG 0.29–0.93 (24%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Benning5:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Harpur2:40
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro2:47
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).