Thu, Apr 1, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 114 | 210 | 438 |
| OTT | 011 | 06 | 16 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:48MTLPaul ByronSHGWGAssists: Jake Evans, Artturi Lehkonen · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 4:43MTLCorey PerryAssists: Jake Evans, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–0
- P3 10:04MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 18:13OTTConnor BrownPPAssists: Josh Norris, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:13MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50OTTBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:58OTTMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:09OTTNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:06MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Drouin – Suzuki13:24
xG 1.21–0.28 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:31
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Perry – Frolik – Evans8:21
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi10:08
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Edmundson15:34
xG 1.22–0.42 (75%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Petry – Kulak17:26
xG 0.83–0.22 (79%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Mete – Romanov14:15
xG 1.07–0.53 (67%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Dzingel – Brown – Paul3:37
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Bishop – Formenton5:03
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Norris – Tkachuk10:42
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – White8:38
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Reilly – Zub14:23
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Brown12:17
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev19:35
xG 0.54–0.89 (38%)attempts 14–28goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).