Thu, Apr 1, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 016 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 337 |
| VGK | 19 | 015 | 18 | 05 | 0 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:57MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jordan Greenway, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 1:39VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: William Carrier, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 5:31MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Kirill Kaprizov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 4. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
- 5. VGK Alex Tuch stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:53VGKNicolas Hague: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:47MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:36VGKReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 11:43MINNick Bonino: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:34VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:34MINKyle Rau: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:31VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:34MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:33MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Rau – Johnson4:29
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Hartman7:29
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rask – Fiala8:26
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov11:46
xG 0.37–0.93 (29%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:30
xG 1.48–0.66 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:37
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Cole – Soucy10:00
xG 0.47–1.05 (31%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Roy10:30
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Carrier – Nosek – Tuch6:44
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Carrier – Nosek – Kolesar2:17
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:00
xG 0.46–1.14 (29%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore13:21
xG 1.22–0.23 (84%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb14:49
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore4:03
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).