Sat, Apr 3, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 29 | 210 | 528 |
| BOS | 06 | 511 | 211 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24PITMark JankowskiAssists: Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 0:11BOSPatrice BergeronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 0:45BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Nick Ritchie, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:45PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 5:11PITJared McCannPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 14:56BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 18:29BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 19:40BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Craig Smith, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 4:38PITCody CeciAssists: Mark Jankowski, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 13:28BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 18:45PITSidney CrosbySHAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–6
- P3 18:59BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:45BOSCharlie McAvoy: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59PITSam Lafferty: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:20BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:10BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:10PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:53PITEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:49PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:49BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Tanev – Aston-Reese7:41
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Lafferty – Angello5:00
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 2–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel15:33
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Zucker – McCann – Rodrigues13:13
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Marino2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino10:32
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Matheson – Ceci14:37
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:17
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 16–5goals 3–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Pastrnak13:33
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Coyle – Kuraly – Bjork12:09
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Senyshyn – Frederic – Studnicka6:55
xG 0.01–0.28 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy15:20
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 4–1
- Kampfer – Zboril15:31
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Zboril – McAvoy2:29
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).