Sat, Apr 3, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 19 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 230 |
| BUF | 110 | 010 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:02NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:01BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Taylor Hall, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:52NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 16:19BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Victor Olofsson stopped
- 2. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 3. BUF Tage Thompson scored
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 6. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:38BUFTaylor Hall: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:55BUFColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:37NYRKaapo Kakko: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:00NYRK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:52BUFVictor Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:12
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Rooney – Gauthier10:13
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kravtsov – Lafrenière8:45
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko9:51
xG 0.27–0.62 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren18:17
xG 1.16–0.90 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller17:49
xG 0.74–0.78 (49%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Smith – Hajek11:52
xG 0.02–0.87 (2%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Rieder – Fogarty8:53
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Skinner – Asplund9:08
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Reinhart – Olofsson10:28
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Mittelstadt13:43
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Bryson15:53
xG 1.13–0.50 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Miller – Montour17:11
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin13:58
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).