Sat, Apr 3, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 016 | 015 | 215 | 246 |
| FLA | 012 | 313 | 214 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:57FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:49FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Frank Vatrano, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.47 xG0–2
- P2 8:47FLAAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 2:46CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 10:54FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 18:15CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Riley Nash, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:53FLAAlexander WennbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:24CBJLiam Foudy: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:20FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P1 19:17CBJMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:33CBJMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:58CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Jenner4:00
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Texier – Foudy5:11
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Foudy5:57
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Jenner – Texier7:44
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov11:07
xG 1.18–0.34 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Lehtonen8:44
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kukan – Lehtonen4:59
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVatrano – Acciari – Tippett5:12
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg11:23
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Acciari3:11
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment12:13
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling13:32
xG 1.44–0.61 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Weegar – Stillman2:30
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Yandle – Gudas3:03
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).