Sat, Apr 3, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 6, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 29 | 210 | 632 |
| MTL | 114 | 212 | 012 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P1 5:31MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:07OTTConnor BrownSHAssists: Nick Paul, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 6:58MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 7:49OTTEvgenii DadonovAssists: Thomas Chabot, Artem Anisimov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 16:02OTTEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 18:48MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 2:55OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Artem Anisimov · Deflected, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 17:05OTTDrake BathersonENAssists: Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:28MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 3:47OTTBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:57OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:55OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:34MTLShea Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:06OTTNick Paul: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:41OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Brown – Bishop7:48
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Dadonov – Formenton7:09
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle9:08
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Paul – Norris – Tkachuk8:22
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Chabot2:52
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev17:39
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gudbranson11:26
xG 0.40–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Evans7:30
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Anderson – Suzuki10:18
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:53
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Drouin – Kotkaniemi10:09
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Romanov13:53
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Romanov2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Kulak3:07
xG 0.01–0.01 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).