Thu, May 6, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 49 | 110 | 18 | 627 |
| EDM | 214 | 017 | 111 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31VANNils HoglanderAssists: J.T. Miller, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:43VANJack RathboneAssists: Jayce Hawryluk · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 6:33VANTravis HamonicAssists: Brock Boeser, Nils Hoglander · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 12:22VANJayce HawrylukGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Matthew Highmore · Snap, 0.11 xG4–0
- P1 16:41EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mike Smith · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P1 18:37EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 9:42VANTyler GraovacUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 12:55EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 15:35VANBrock BoeserAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:32VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min
- P1 9:46EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:46VANTyler Graovac: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:36EDMAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:36VANTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:59VANZack MacEwen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:09EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:36EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:36EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:36VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:59VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:40EDMJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:44VANTyler Myers: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Hoglander8:40
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Graovac – Hawryluk – Highmore6:46
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Lind5:46
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Highmore3:19
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Schmidt13:58
xG 1.09–0.63 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 3–0
- Hamonic – Hughes11:43
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 2–1
- Myers – Rathbone11:03
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto – Kahun9:37
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – McLeod8:48
xG 0.42–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Archibald – Khaira – Russell7:49
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:04
xG 0.65–1.06 (38%)attempts 13–10goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Larsson10:33
xG 0.87–0.52 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Bear – Jones13:28
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Barrie – Nurse13:54
xG 0.80–1.14 (41%)attempts 19–10goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).