Sun, Apr 4, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 5, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 27 | 27 | 519 |
| NJD | 117 | 114 | 28 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Nick Merkley, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:16WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:21WSHConor ShearyAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.43 xG3–1
- P2 17:42NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Ryan Murray, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 2:41WSHCarl HagelinSHAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 5:31WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 10:15NJDJesper BrattAssists: Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.31 xG5–3
- P3 15:53NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Nick Merkley, Ryan Murray · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:31WSHCarl Hagelin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:58NJDDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48WSHDaniel Sprong: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:20WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34NJDPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:35NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:14WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Kuznetsov – Sprong4:06
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Sheary9:50
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Eller6:10
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Panik – Sprong4:37
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon16:26
xG 1.21–0.81 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Chara – Jensen13:18
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov16:49
xG 0.38–1.49 (20%)attempts 8–22goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes12:05
xG 1.32–0.32 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Wood – Zacha – Bratt8:03
xG 0.52–0.27 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- McLeod – Maltsev – Boqvist10:12
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johnsson – Merkley9:06
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov14:32
xG 1.39–0.76 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Severson – Smith3:39
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Murray – Severson11:48
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).