Mon, Apr 19, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 114 | 010 | 232 |
| NSH | 19 | 211 | 210 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Erik Haula, Matt Benning · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:14CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Pius Suter, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 4:48NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mikael Granlund, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:39NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:52CHIDavid KampfAssists: Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:23NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Ryan Ellis · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 0:41NSHLuke KuninAssists: Mikael Granlund, Calle Jarnkrok · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:05NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:41NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:37CHICalvin de Haan: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:42NSHNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:18CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:14CHIPius Suter: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:44NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P3 17:20CHIAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49NSHNick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49NSHNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hinostroza – Suter6:09
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Strome – Kurashev3:21
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Carpenter – Kampf4:29
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Suter2:31
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Stillman3:07
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Keith – Murphy5:11
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- de Haan – Murphy5:39
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Haula – Cousins7:07
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin11:00
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot7:18
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Arvidsson2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:07
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Josi – Benning12:43
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Harpur11:55
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).