Sat, Apr 10, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 111 | 010 | 232 |
| PHI | 27 | 07 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Craig Smith, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:51PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Robert Hagg, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:46PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Travis Konecny, James van Riemsdyk · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:45BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Craig Smith, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:59PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Joel Farabee, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:31BOSJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52BOSConnor Clifton: Holding2 min
- P2 2:30PHINolan Patrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:06PHITravis Sanheim: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:10PHIKevin Hayes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:45PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith8:45
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Coyle – DeBrusk – Kuhlman7:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Pastrnak9:46
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak2:43
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Lauzon8:02
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk6:54
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Clifton – Lauzon9:34
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Konecny9:16
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Aube-Kubel – Lindblom – Patrick5:34
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Lindblom2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Raffl7:30
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Provorov5:15
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim4:27
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).