Mon, Apr 5, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 6, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 211 | 415 | 07 | 633 |
| STL | 18 | 015 | 09 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25VGKTomas NosekAssists: Nick Holden, Keegan Kolesar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:25VGKAlec MartinezGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 17:01STLTyler BozakAssists: Zachary Sanford · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:08VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Alex Tuch, Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 7:40VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 9:07VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
- P2 13:00VGKNicolas HagueAssists: William Carrier, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 13:32VGKRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:32VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:14STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:27STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:22VGKNick Holden: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Tuch – Kolesar8:50
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Roy2:37
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:54
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Glass9:47
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore17:29
xG 1.06–0.64 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb15:15
xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Holden – Hague13:15
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas5:31
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev4:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bozak – Clifford – Sanford10:06
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:05
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko6:04
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella3:01
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dunn2:24
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).