Mon, Apr 5, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 15 | 114 | 03 | 01 | 223 |
| MTL | 015 | 07 | 27 | 13 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:39EDMDevin ShoreAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 19:49EDMDarnell NursePPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 1:45MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Corey Perry, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:23MTLTomas TatarAssists: Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 4:02MTLEric StaalGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:48MTLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:41EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P2 12:53MTLEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:53MTLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:54EDMJujhar Khaira: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:31MTLTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:56
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kassian – Shore – Khaira2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi14:16
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kassian – Archibald – Haas3:58
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse2:00
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bear – Jones10:55
xG 0.95–0.90 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Barrie – Nurse16:15
xG 0.57–1.11 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Tatar – Danault2:27
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault3:21
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Anderson – Suzuki10:01
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Toffoli – Drouin11:09
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Romanov12:36
xG 0.94–0.11 (90%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Petry – Kulak18:25
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Edmundson15:38
xG 1.00–0.64 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).