Mon, Apr 5, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 420 | 110 | 536 |
| MIN | 111 | 05 | 39 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40MINRyan HartmanAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:18COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:29COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Samuel Girard, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 15:48COLBrandon SaadAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Jacob MacDonald · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 17:52COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Cale Makar, Liam O'Brien · Deflected, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 3:35MINNick BjugstadAssists: Ryan Hartman, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 7:22COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 9:44MINMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 19:25MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:36COLDevon Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 3:20COLJacob MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 5:27COLAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:54COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:37MINIan Cole: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:57MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:44COLLiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:22COLKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:22MINNick Bjugstad: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:11COLRyan Graves: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:53MINNick Bonino: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:53MINNick Bonino: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:53MINNick Bonino: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINMathew Dumba: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Landeskog
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:02
xG 0.87–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:51
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Donskoi – Nichushkin – Jost9:57
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Compher – Bellemare4:31
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard14:21
xG 0.89–0.03 (97%)attempts 16–2goals 2–0
- Girard – Makar4:16
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Makar3:22
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Bonino – Rask – Fiala9:32
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Bjugstad – Hartman9:19
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
- Rau – Johnson – Sturm4:49
xG 0.06–0.42 (13%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov12:33
xG 0.06–0.75 (7%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy11:30
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:48
xG 0.23–0.85 (21%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
- Brodin – Dumba17:34
xG 0.09–1.20 (7%)attempts 7–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).