Tue, Apr 6, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 25 | 19 | 24 | 518 |
| NJD | 27 | 113 | 010 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Tyce Thompson, Mikhail Maltsev · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 9:56BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 19:17BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Tage Thompson, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 19:59NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Pavel Zacha · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:03NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Miles Wood · Snap, 0.29 xG2–3
- P2 15:19BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Riley Sheahan, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 10:20BUFCasey MittelstadtPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 18:29BUFRasmus RistolainenENUnassisted · Slap, 0.50 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:45BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:13BUFSteven Fogarty: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:54BUFColin Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:42NJDSami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P3 9:03NJDYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAsplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt9:51
xG 0.60–0.19 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Fogarty8:08
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Reinhart – Olofsson3:57
xG 0.01–0.29 (2%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Reinhart – Olofsson2:37
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Bryson15:17
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:17
xG 0.64–1.20 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Miller – Montour14:38
xG 0.23–0.86 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Zacha – Bratt10:44
xG 1.28–0.06 (96%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- McLeod – Maltsev – Thompson6:37
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes12:57
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johnsson – Merkley9:30
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov14:50
xG 0.82–0.27 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Severson – Smith3:45
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Murray – Severson13:34
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).